American Express Co.
[AXP]
NYSE
MVPro™ Score: 54/100
Last Earnings: 17 Oct 2025
[AXP]
NYSE
MVPro™ Score: 54/100
Last Earnings: 17 Oct 2025
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| Capitalization (mln USD) | 217,690 |
| Revenue (mln USD) | 19,933 |
| EBITDA (mln USD) | 0 |
| Net Income (mln USD) | 2,852 |
| Net Margin | 14.31% |
| EPS Ratio (TTM, USD) | 14.33 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 21.73 |
| P/S Ratio (TTM) | 2.89 |
| D/E Ratio | 8.15 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | N/A |
| CAPEX (Q/Q) | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.04% |
Revenue, EBITDA & Net Income
Company Overview
American Express Co, commonly known as Amex, was founded in 1850 in Buffalo, New York, originally as an express mail business. Over time, it evolved into one of the world’s leading financial services companies, best known for its charge cards, credit cards, and traveller’s cheques. Headquartered today in New York City, the company has a strong brand presence built on premium customer service and financial reliability.
Its core products and services include consumer and business credit cards, travel-related services, and payment and expense management solutions. Amex cards are widely used by both individual and corporate clients, particularly in the premium and affluent segments of the market. The company has also developed digital platforms and mobile payment solutions to strengthen its global presence in an increasingly cashless economy.
American Express operates in more than 110 countries and serves millions of cardholders worldwide. The company is currently led by Chairman and Chief Executive Officer Stephen J. Squeri, who has overseen its expansion in digital services and customer engagement. Its mission is to provide exceptional service and trusted financial solutions while maintaining a commitment to responsible business practices. With growing attention to ESG policies, Amex has pledged to reduce its environmental footprint, support financial inclusion, and maintain strong governance standards.
🟡 P/E (Price to Earnings, TTM)
Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the most recent quarter is 22.2, compared to 18.5 in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 21.1. This increase in the P/E ratio suggests a higher valuation of the company by investors, potentially driven by strong growth expectations, earnings stability, or increased market confidence.
P/E Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (TTM)
P/E Ratio
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🟡 EPS (Earnings Per Share, TTM)
American Express's earnings per share (EPS) for the most recent quarter is 14.33 USD (-0.81%), compared to 14.45 USD in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 15.22 USD. This quarterly decline in EPS may indicate increased operational costs, lower revenue growth, or market pressures.
EPS
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (TTM, USD)
EPS
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🔴 P/B (Price to Book)
Price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the most recent quarter stands at 6.88 (+14.4%), compared to 6.02 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 6.83. The rise in the P/B ratio suggests that investors are valuing the company’s assets at a higher multiple, potentially due to improved financial performance, asset appreciation, or heightened market optimism.
P/B Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
P/B Ratio
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🟢 EBIT
EBIT for American Express in the most recent quarter is 3,550 million USD, compared to 3,330 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 3,354 million USD. This increase reflects improved operational performance and higher profitability, aligning with the long-term growth trajectory.
EBIT
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
EBIT
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🟡 Risk Assessment
American Express Co operates in the global financial services sector and is subject to a variety of risks that may affect its performance and long-term growth.
Market Risk
American Express faces strong competition from global payment networks such as Visa, Mastercard, and emerging fintech providers. Shifts in consumer spending patterns, especially during economic downturns, may directly affect transaction volumes. Currency fluctuations and global market volatility also present challenges to its international operations.
Financial Risk
The company’s business model depends heavily on consumer and business credit usage, which exposes it to credit and default risk. Rising interest rates may increase funding costs and reduce borrowing demand. Additionally, fluctuations in global capital markets may impact liquidity and investment income.
Operational Risk
As a payment services provider, American Express relies on secure and resilient technology infrastructure, making it vulnerable to cyberattacks and system outages. Operational disruptions could harm customer trust and brand reputation. Dependence on third-party partners and global payment networks also introduces risks of service reliability and compliance gaps.
Regulatory Risk
The company is subject to extensive financial regulations across multiple jurisdictions, including consumer protection, anti-money laundering, and data privacy requirements. Regulatory changes could increase compliance costs and restrict business practices. Failure to comply with local or international standards may result in significant fines or operational limitations.
Overall Risk Assessment
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🟢 Piotroski F-Score Analysis
Piotroski F-Score analysis is a robust methodology designed to assess the financial strength and operational efficiency of companies, providing valuable insights for investment decision-making.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
| Previous TTM | Current TTM | Score | |
| Net Income | 9,704 | 10,017 | 1 |
| ROA | 3.69% | 3.58% | 1 |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 9,973 | 4,882 | 1 |
| OCF > Net Income | 15,393 | 3,077 | 1 |
| Long-Term Debt | 194,660 | 212,699 | 0 |
| Current Ratio | 1.66 | 1.61 | 0 |
| New Shares Issued (mln) | 717 | 699 | 1 |
| Gross Margin | 89.01% | 89.30% | 1 |
| Total Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.27 | 0.27 | 1 |
| Piotroski F-Score | 7/9 |
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🟢 Altman Z-Score Analysis
Altman Z-Score is a widely recognised financial metric used to evaluate the risk of bankruptcy for companies. It is particularly relevant for assessing the creditworthiness of manufacturing and industrial companies but has also been adapted for other industries.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
| Q2 25 | |||
| Altman Z-Score (TTM) | 3.01 | ||
| 0 | Distress | 1.8 | Grey | 2.99 | Safe | 4 |
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
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🔴 Key Assets Components
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
As of last quarter the company reported total assets of 295,556 million USD, representing an increase of 8.6% compared to the previous year the same quarter 272,219 million USD. The largest contributor to this change in current assets was Cash & Short-Term Inv, which grew by 9.5% to 57,937 million USD from 52,895 million USD.
Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Cash & Short-Term Inv | 52,895 | 57,937 | 9.53% |
| Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Receivables | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Total Current Assets | 245,927 | 266,086 | 8.20% |
| Property and Equipment | 5,247 | 5,662 | 7.91% |
| Goodwill, Intangibles | 0.000001 | 0.000001 | 0.00% |
| Other Long-Term Assets | 19,835 | 22,550 | 13.69% |
| Total Assets | 272,219 | 295,556 | 8.57% |
Assets
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🔴 Key Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Total current liabilities increased by 11.1%, indicating a potential growth in operational activities. This change may affect the company's ability to manage its working capital efficiently. Long-term debt increased by 13.0%, suggesting a rise in long-term obligations. This shift could have implications for the American Express's financing costs and overall debt strategy.
Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Accounts Payable | 13,145 | 14,121 | 7.42% |
| Accrued Expenses, Other | 530 | 530 | 0.00% |
| Total Current Liabilities | 148,530 | 165,000 | 11.09% |
| Long-term Lease | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Long-term Debt | 51,521 | 58,202 | 12.97% |
| Total Liabilities | 242,679 | 263,245 | 8.47% |
| Shareholders’ Equity | 29,540 | 32,311 | 9.38% |
Liabilities & Equity
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🟡 Income Statement Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
As of Q2 25, American Express reported a revenue of 19,933 million USD, marking an increase of 8.3% compared to the previous year to 18,397 million USD. Operating expenses rose to 14,306 million USD, increasing by 6.5% year-on-year from 13,432 million USD.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Revenue | 18,397 | 19,933 | 8.35% |
| Operating Expenses | 13,432 | 14,306 | 6.51% |
| Operating Income | 3,790 | 3,550 | -6.33% |
| Net Income | 2,977 | 2,852 | -4.20% |
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Revenue & Net Income
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🟡 Cash Flow Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
The company’s cash flow performance over the year demonstrates varied trends across key categories. Net operating cash flows decreased by 3.7% from 4,532 million USD to 4,364 million USD, reflecting lower cash generation from core business activities. Net investing cash flows decreased by 23.8% from -5,491 million USD to -6,797 million USD, indicating higher expenditure on investments, potentially related to strategic initiatives.
Operating Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Net Operating Cash Flows | 4,532 | 4,364 | -3.71% |
| Net Investing Cash Flows | -5,491 | -6,797 | -23.78% |
| Net Financing Cash Flows | -325 | 7,678 | 2462.46% |
| Net Cash Flow, Equivalents | -1,284 | 5,245 | 508.49% |
Operating Cash Flow
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🟡 EBITDA
EBITDA is not reported for American Express, as it is not a relevant metric for banking institutions. Due to the nature of the banking business, where interest income and expense are core components of operations, metrics like net interest income and net profit are more appropriate for financial analysis.
EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
EBITDA
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🟢 Net Income
Net income for the most recent quarter is 2,852 milion USD (+11.8%), compared to 2,552 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 2,645 milion USD. This increase in net income reflects improved profitability, potentially driven by higher revenue growth, enhanced cost efficiency, or favorable market conditions.
Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Income
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🟡 ROE (Return on Equity, %) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
American Express's return on equity (ROE) for the most recent quarter is 31.0%, compared to 32.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 32.5%. This decline in ROE may indicate reduced profitability, increased equity base, or other financial challenges affecting the company's return on investment.
ROE Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
ROE Indicator
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🟡 ROA (Return on Assets, %)
Return on assets (ROA) for the most recent quarter is 3.4%, compared to 3.6% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 3.5%. This decline in ROA may indicate lower profitability, increased asset base, or operational inefficiencies affecting the company's ability to generate returns.
ROA Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
ROA Indicator
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🟢 Operating Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
American Express's operating margin for the most recent quarter is 17.8%, compared to 17.6% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 16.2%. This increase in operating margin reflects improved cost efficiency, higher revenue retention, or a stronger pricing strategy. The rise suggests that American Express is effectively managing its operational expenses while maintaining revenue growth.
Operating Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
Operating Margin
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🟢 Net Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Net margin for the most recent quarter is 14.3%, compared to 13.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 12.8%. This increase in net margin suggests improved profitability, reflecting stronger cost control, enhanced operational efficiency, or higher revenue retention. The company appears to be effectively managing expenses while maintaining revenue growth, contributing to improved bottom-line performance.
Net Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
Net Margin
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🔴 Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
EBITDA is not reported for American Express, as it is not a relevant metric for banking institutions. Due to the nature of the banking business, where interest income and expense are core components of operations, metrics like net interest income and net profit are more appropriate for financial analysis.
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
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🟢 Long-Term Debt & Assets
The current long-term debt is 58,202 million USD, and total assets are 295,556 million USD, resulting in a debt ratio of 19.7%. This increase in the long-term debt-to-assets ratio may indicate a higher dependency on long-term debt or a decrease in total assets, potentially leading to increased financial risk. A rising ratio suggests that American Express may be taking on additional liabilities or experiencing challenges in maintaining asset growth.
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
The debt-to-assets ratio remains in the low-risk range <40%, which is a sign of a strong financial position. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
The debt-to-assets ratio remains in the low-risk range <40%, which is a sign of a strong financial position. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
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🔴 Long-Term Debt & Equity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The current long-term debt is 58,202 million USD, while Total Equity stands at 32,311 million USD, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 180.1%. This increase in the long-term debt-to-equity ratio may indicate a greater reliance on leverage, which could increase financial risk. A rising ratio suggests that American Express may be taking on additional debt obligations or experiencing challenges in equity growth, which could impact long-term financial stability.
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
The ratio remains within the elevated range 150%–250%, indicating a growing reliance on debt financing. While not yet critical, careful monitoring of leverage and interest obligations is advised. Investors and analysts will closely monitor upcoming financial reports to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in financial strategy.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
The ratio remains within the elevated range 150%–250%, indicating a growing reliance on debt financing. While not yet critical, careful monitoring of leverage and interest obligations is advised. Investors and analysts will closely monitor upcoming financial reports to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in financial strategy.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
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🔴 Equity to Assets
The current equity is 32,311 million USD, while total assets stand at 295,556 million USD, resulting in an equity-to-assets ratio of 10.9%. This decline in the equity-to-assets ratio may signal increased financial leverage or a reduction in equity levels. A falling ratio suggests that American Express may be increasing its reliance on debt financing or facing equity dilution, which could affect long-term financial resilience.
Equity to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (%)
The ratio is now below the 30% threshold, signaling potential financial vulnerability. A lower equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk in uncertain market conditions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future capital allocation strategies to determine whether this decrease is a short-term fluctuation or a longer-term structural change.
Equity & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Equity to Assets Ratio
The ratio is now below the 30% threshold, signaling potential financial vulnerability. A lower equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk in uncertain market conditions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future capital allocation strategies to determine whether this decrease is a short-term fluctuation or a longer-term structural change.
Equity & Assets
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🟡 Quick Ratio
The quick ratio for American Express is 1.61, compared to 1.58 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1.60. This increase in the quick ratio suggests improved short-term liquidity, indicating that the company has a stronger ability to cover its immediate liabilities with liquid assets. The current level is above 1.0, which is considered financially healthy, demonstrating that the company maintains a solid liquidity position.
Quick Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
Quick Ratio
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🟢 Current Ratio
The current ratio for American Express is 1.61, compared to 1.58 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1.60. This increase in the current ratio suggests improved liquidity, indicating that the company has a stronger ability to cover its short-term liabilities with current assets. Although the ratio has increased, it remains within the optimal range of 1.0–2.0, ensuring a healthy balance between liquidity and operational efficiency.
Current Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
Current Ratio
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🟢 Net Working Capital
The net working capital (NWC) for American Express in the most recent quarter is 101,086 million USD, compared to 93,165 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 101,915 million USD.
Net Working Capital
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Working Capital
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🟢 Inventory Turnover Ratio
The inventory turnover ratio for American Express is not applicable, as inventory is not a relevant component of operations in the banking industry. This reflects the nature of financial institutions, which primarily deal with monetary assets and liabilities rather than physical goods.
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
Inventory Turnover Ratio
🔴 Asset Turnover Ratio
The assets turnover ratio for American Express in the most recent quarter is 0.26, compared to 0.27 in the previous quarter. This decline in the assets turnover ratio may suggest lower revenue generation, excess assets, or inefficiencies in assets utilization. A decreasing trend could indicate weaker sales growth or an overinvestment in fixed assets. The ratio has fallen below the 1.0, suggesting that American Express may have a high level of assets relative to revenue generation. This could indicate underutilized resources or the need for improved asset efficiency.
Assets Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
Assets Turnover Ratio
🔴 Book Value / Share
The book value per share (BVPS) is a key valuation metric that represents the equity value per outstanding share. Calculated by dividing total book value by the number of shares, it helps assess whether a stock trades above or below its book value.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (USD)
Book Value per Share Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (USD, generated on 18 July 2025)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Book Value / Share | 41.2 | 46.22 | 12.18 % |
Book Value per Share Valuation
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🟢 Graham Method
The intrinsic value of American Express’s stock is calculated using Benjamin Graham’s formula, which takes into account the current earnings per share (EPS) and an assumed growth rate (g), providing a simplified yet insightful perspective on a company’s value.
Benjamin Graham Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (USD, generated on 18 July 2025)
Benjamin Graham Valuation
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🟢 Discounted Cash Flow ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The discounted cash flow (DCF) method is used to estimate American Express’s intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This approach considers the company’s potential to generate cash flows in the future, taking into account the time value of money and associated risks.
The terminal value represents the value of American Express’s cash flows beyond the five-year forecast horizon. It is calculated using the Gordon Growth Model, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 4.0% and WACC of 11.2%. The calculated terminal value is 396,132 million USD.
Total Intrinsic Value Calculations
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Assuming 699 million shares outstanding, the intrinsic value per share is approximately 432.18 USD. The current market price of American Express’s stock is 311.43 USD. Discounted cash flow valuation indicates that the stock is 27.9% undervalued, trading below its intrinsic value.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (USD, generated on 18 July 2025)
| Value | |
| Present Value of FCFs | 69,430 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 232,665 |
| Total Intrinsic Value | 302,095 |
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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🟢 Assets Correlation
The Pearson correlation analysis for American Express examines the relationship between share price and key financial indicators. Gross profit has a correlation of 0.93, which indicates a strong relationship, meaning profitability is a key driver of stock price movements. Operating income is correlated at 0.69, indicating a moderate influence on stock price movements.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports
Current liabilities are correlated at 0.94, implying that short-term obligations are closely monitored by investors, influencing stock valuation. Total assets have a correlation of 0.94, confirming a strong relationship between asset growth and market performance.
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports, Index=100 on Q4 10
| Pearson Correlation | |
| Share Price | 1 |
| Gross Profit | 0.93 |
| Operating Income | 0.69 |
| Current Liabilities | 0.94 |
| Total Assets | 0.94 |
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
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Projected FCF Margin Scenarios
🟡 Operating Costs Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: 81%, reflecting enhanced efficiency and lower costs.
• Base Case: 83% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 86%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Reducing operational costs to 81% of revenue leads to a 1,764 milion USD increase in operating profit, emphasising the significance of cost control in enhancing margins. Increasing costs to 86% of revenue results in a 2,079 milion USD decline in operating profit, highlighting the sensitivity of profitability to rising expenses.
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: 83% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 86%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| Operating Costs (%) | Revenue TTM | Operating Profit | Difference | |
| Optimistic | 81% | 76,863 | 14,604 | 1,764 |
| Base Case | 83% | 76,863 | 12,840 | – |
| Pessimistic | 86% | 76,863 | 10,761 | -2,079 |
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Revenue Growth Scenarios
Optimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 15% annually, driven by:
• Robust macroeconomic conditions.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 12% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 10% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD, TTM)
The projected revenue for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, revenue is expected to increase by 15% to 88,093 million USD, reflecting strong market growth and operational efficiency. In the base case scenario, revenue is forecasted to grow by 12% to 86,221 million USD, assuming stable economic conditions and consistent business expansion. However, under the pessimistic scenario, revenue is projected to increase by 10% to 84,349 million USD, reflecting potential economic slowdowns or adverse market conditions.
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the American Express's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 12% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 10% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
| Revenue | Net Income | Revenue (Next) | Net Income (Next) | |
| Optimistic | 76,863 | 10,017 | 88,093 | 11,480 |
| Base Case | 76,863 | 10,017 | 86,221 | 11,237 |
| Pessimistic | 76,863 | 10,017 | 84,349 | 10,993 |
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the American Express's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
🟡 Net Income Growth Scenarios
The projected net income for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, net income is expected to increase by 15% to 11,480 million USD, reflecting improved profitability and strong financial performance. In the base case scenario, net income is forecasted to grow by 12% to 11,237 million USD, assuming stable market conditions and effective cost management. However, under the pessimistic scenario, net income is projected to decline by 10% to 10,993 million USD, reflecting potential challenges such as higher operational costs or slowing revenue growth.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
The range of projected net income outcomes illustrates the American Express's exposure to fluctuations in margins and cost structures. A potential decline in the pessimistic scenario highlights the importance of maintaining operational discipline and protecting bottom-line performance. This reinforces the need for flexible financial planning and proactive risk mitigation strategies. Understanding the variability in profit expectations is critical for setting realistic investor guidance and aligning internal targets with external conditions.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
The range of projected net income outcomes illustrates the American Express's exposure to fluctuations in margins and cost structures. A potential decline in the pessimistic scenario highlights the importance of maintaining operational discipline and protecting bottom-line performance. This reinforces the need for flexible financial planning and proactive risk mitigation strategies. Understanding the variability in profit expectations is critical for setting realistic investor guidance and aligning internal targets with external conditions.
🟡 Financial Performance Overview
American Express demonstrated stronger financial performance in the most recent period, reflecting strong revenue growth, operational efficiency, and profitability improvements revenue increased by 8.4% year-over-year, reaching 19,933 million USD, supported by strong sales performance across all key markets. At the same time, EBITDA declined by 100.0% year-over-year, totaling 0 million USD, driven by cost optimization and higher-margin business segments.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
Notably, net income declined by 4.2% year-over-year, reaching 2,852 million USD, improving American Express's net margin, which expanded to 14.3%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Revenue & Net Income
Notably, net income declined by 4.2% year-over-year, reaching 2,852 million USD, improving American Express's net margin, which expanded to 14.3%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (YoY)
Valuation & Market Position
EBITDA is not reported for American Express, as it is not a relevant metric for banking institutions. Due to the nature of the banking business, where interest income and expense are core components of operations, metrics like net interest income and net profit are more appropriate for financial analysis.
EV to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (TTM)
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (TTM)
Meanwhile, the P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio has increased to 22.2, down from 19.5 a year ago, which may indicate heightened investor expectations for future profitability. The P/S (Price to Sales) ratio has risen to 2.89, compared to 2.62 a year ago, reinforcing American Express’s higher market capitalization relative to revenue.
| Change (%) | |
| Revenue Growth | 8.4% |
| EBITDA Growth | 0 |
| Net Income Growth | -4.2% |
| Net Margin | 14.3% |
| EPS | 5.9% |
EV to EBITDA Ratio
| Ratio (TTM) | |
| EV/EBITDA | N/A |
| P/E Ratio | 21.73 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.89 |
Cash Flow & Liquidity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
American Express is experiencing a weakened cash flow position, reflecting potential liquidity challenges. The decline in cash flow may indicate increased operational costs or reduced cash inflows, requiring closer financial monitoring and strategic adjustments.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF) – totaled 4,364 million USD, indicating a decline in available cash resources, requiring enhanced financial oversight.
• Net Operating Cash Flow – declined by 51.0% year-over-year, reaching 4,882 million USD, suggesting weaker cash inflows from operating activities.
• Long-term debt – increased by 9.3%, which may lead to higher financial leverage and increased interest obligations.
Free Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, American Express Financial Reports (million USD)
American Express's return on equity (ROE) is 31.0%, pointing to reduced return on shareholder capital and weaker financial performance. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 180.1%, which may reflect rising leverage and a shift toward debt-based financing. The quick ratio is 1.61, showing improved liquidity and better short-term risk coverage. Overall, American Express’s financial health remains strong, with consistent revenue expansion, rising operational costs, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is increasing, while American Express’s long-term prospects remain positive.
Free Cash Flow
American Express's return on equity (ROE) is 31.0%, pointing to reduced return on shareholder capital and weaker financial performance. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 180.1%, which may reflect rising leverage and a shift toward debt-based financing. The quick ratio is 1.61, showing improved liquidity and better short-term risk coverage. Overall, American Express’s financial health remains strong, with consistent revenue expansion, rising operational costs, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is increasing, while American Express’s long-term prospects remain positive.
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