ASML Holding
[ASML]
NASDAQ
MVPro™ Score: 73/100
Last Earnings: 15 Oct 2025
[ASML]
NASDAQ
MVPro™ Score: 73/100
Last Earnings: 15 Oct 2025
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| Capitalization (mln USD) | 493,392 |
| Revenue (mln USD) | 8,732 |
| EBITDA (mln USD) | 3,333 |
| Net Income (mln USD) | 2,600 |
| Net Margin | 29.78% |
| EPS Ratio (TTM, USD) | 26.41 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 48.15 |
| P/S Ratio (TTM) | 8.86 |
| D/E Ratio | 1.55 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 25.09 |
| CAPEX (Q/Q) | 137.29% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.00% |
Revenue, EBITDA & Net Income
Company Overview
ASML Holding N.V., founded in 1984 as a joint venture between Philips and ASM International, has grown into the world’s leading supplier of photolithography systems for the semiconductor industry. Headquartered in Veldhoven, the Netherlands, the company plays a critical role in enabling the production of advanced microchips used in a wide range of electronic devices. Over the years, ASML has become particularly known for its pioneering work in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology.
The company’s core products include advanced lithography machines, software solutions, and services that help chipmakers increase production efficiency and reduce costs. Its customers include major semiconductor manufacturers such as TSMC, Samsung, and Intel, with operations and service centres across Asia, Europe, and the Americas. ASML is currently led by President and CEO Christophe Fouquet, who succeeded Peter Wennink in 2024, guiding the company through a period of strong demand and technological advancement.
ASML’s mission is to unlock the potential of people and society by pushing technology to new limits, with a focus on innovation, collaboration, and sustainability. The company operates in global markets, contributing to technological progress in sectors from consumer electronics to artificial intelligence.
🔴 P/E (Price to Earnings, TTM)
Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the most recent quarter is 30.3, compared to 27.7 in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 25.9. This increase in the P/E ratio suggests a higher valuation of the company by investors, potentially driven by strong growth expectations, earnings stability, or increased market confidence.
P/E Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (TTM)
P/E Ratio
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🟢 EPS (Earnings Per Share, TTM)
ASML's earnings per share (EPS) for the most recent quarter is 26.41 USD (+11.1%), compared to 23.78 USD in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 27.58 USD. This quarterly increase in EPS suggests improved profitability and operational efficiency.
EPS
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (TTM, USD)
EPS
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🔴 P/B (Price to Book)
Price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the most recent quarter stands at 15.51 (+10.4%), compared to 14.05 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 13.50. The rise in the P/B ratio suggests that investors are valuing the company’s assets at a higher multiple, potentially due to improved financial performance, asset appreciation, or heightened market optimism.
P/B Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
P/B Ratio
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🟢 EBIT
EBIT for ASML in the most recent quarter is 3,024 million USD, compared to 2,884 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 3,741 million USD. This increase reflects improved operational performance and higher profitability, aligning with the long-term growth trajectory.
EBIT
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
EBIT
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🟢 Risk Assessment
This risk assessment highlights the key business risks currently faced by ASML Holding N.V. within the global semiconductor industry.
Market Risk
ASML operates in a highly cyclical semiconductor market, where fluctuations in demand can significantly impact revenue. Increasing competition and rapid technological change may challenge the company’s market leadership. Geopolitical tensions, particularly affecting trade with China, could disrupt customer relationships and future sales.
Financial Risk
Exchange rate volatility, especially between the euro and Asian or US currencies, can influence financial performance. Dependence on a small number of major customers creates revenue concentration risk. Economic downturns or tighter credit conditions may impact both customer investment capacity and ASML’s own financing options.
Operational Risk
The company’s advanced manufacturing processes require precision engineering, making them vulnerable to production delays and supply chain disruptions. Shortages of skilled engineers and technicians could slow down product development. Cybersecurity threats and potential breaches pose risks to intellectual property and customer data.
Regulatory Risk
ASML is subject to strict export controls, particularly for its EUV systems, which may restrict access to certain markets. Changes in international trade regulations could affect component sourcing and delivery timelines. Evolving environmental and safety regulations may increase compliance costs and operational complexity
Overall Risk Assessment
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🟢 Piotroski F-Score Analysis
Piotroski F-Score analysis is a robust methodology designed to assess the financial strength and operational efficiency of companies, providing valuable insights for investment decision-making.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
| Previous TTM | Current TTM | Score | |
| Net Income | 7,304 | 10,246 | 1 |
| ROA | 17.15% | 20.77% | 1 |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 200.6 | 2,445.2 | 1 |
| OCF > Net Income | -1,053.2 | 1,536.7 | 1 |
| Long-Term Debt | 19,905 | 17,216 | 1 |
| Current Ratio | 1.52 | 1.43 | 0 |
| New Shares Issued (mln) | 394 | 388 | 1 |
| Gross Margin | 51.44% | 52.52% | 1 |
| Total Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.65 | 0.71 | 1 |
| Piotroski F-Score | 8/9 |
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🟢 Altman Z-Score Analysis
Altman Z-Score is a widely recognised financial metric used to evaluate the risk of bankruptcy for companies. It is particularly relevant for assessing the creditworthiness of manufacturing and industrial companies but has also been adapted for other industries.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
| Q2 25 | |||
| Altman Z-Score (TTM) | 8.97 | ||
| 0 | Distress | 1.8 | Grey | 2.99 | Safe | 4 |
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
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🟢 Key Assets Components
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
As of last quarter the company reported total assets of 50,913 million USD, representing an increase of 16.0% compared to the previous year the same quarter 43,874 million USD. The largest contributor to this change in current assets was Cash & Short-Term Inv, which grew by 52.2% to 8,229 million USD from 5,405 million USD.
Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Cash & Short-Term Inv | 5,405 | 8,229 | 52.25% |
| Inventory | 11,816 | 13,141 | 11.21% |
| Receivables | 5,872 | 6,275 | 6.86% |
| Total Current Assets | 26,334 | 30,322 | 15.14% |
| Property and Equipment | 6,552 | 8,282 | 26.40% |
| Goodwill, Intangibles | 5,681 | 5,851 | 2.99% |
| Other Long-Term Assets | 757 | 958 | 26.55% |
| Total Assets | 43,874 | 50,913 | 16.04% |
Assets
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🔴 Key Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Total current liabilities increased by 21.6%, indicating a potential growth in operational activities. This change may affect the company's ability to manage its working capital efficiently. Long-term debt decreased by 15.4%, suggesting a reduction in financial leverage. This shift could have implications for the ASML's financing costs and overall debt strategy.
Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Accounts Payable | 875.1 | 875.1 | 0.00% |
| Accrued Expenses, Other | 671 | 671 | 0.00% |
| Total Current Liabilities | 17,373 | 21,133 | 21.64% |
| Long-term Lease | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Long-term Debt | 4,963 | 4,199 | -15.39% |
| Total Liabilities | 28,031 | 30,913 | 10.28% |
| Shareholders’ Equity | 15,842 | 20,000 | 26.25% |
Liabilities & Equity
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🟢 Income Statement Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
As of Q2 25, ASML reported a revenue of 8,732 million USD, marking an increase of 29.9% compared to the previous year to 6,723 million USD. Operating expenses rose to 1,664 million USD, increasing by 11.9% year-on-year from 1,487 million USD.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Revenue | 6,723 | 8,732 | 29.88% |
| Operating Expenses | 1,487 | 1,664 | 11.90% |
| Operating Income | 1,976 | 3,024 | 53.04% |
| Net Income | 1,699 | 2,600 | 53.03% |
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Revenue & Net Income
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🟡 Cash Flow Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
The company’s cash flow performance over the year demonstrates varied trends across key categories. Net operating cash flows increased by 45.8% from 923 million USD to 1,346 million USD, reflecting stronger cash generation from core business activities. Net investing cash flows decreased by 125.5% from -438 million USD to -987 million USD, indicating higher expenditure on investments, potentially related to strategic initiatives.
Operating Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Net Operating Cash Flows | 923.4 | 1,346 | 45.77% |
| Net Investing Cash Flows | -437.8 | -987.4 | -125.54% |
| Net Financing Cash Flows | -772.3 | -2,202.7 | -185.21% |
| Net Cash Flow, Equivalents | -286.7 | -1,844.1 | -543.22% |
Operating Cash Flow
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🟢 EBITDA
ASML's EBITDA for the most recent quarter is 3,333 milion USD (+6.2%), compared to 3,139 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 4,052 milion USD. This increase in EBITDA suggests improved operational efficiency and revenue growth, indicating stronger core business performance.
EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
EBITDA
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🟢 Net Income
Net income for the most recent quarter is 2,600 milion USD (+4.8%), compared to 2,481 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 3,316 milion USD. This increase in net income reflects improved profitability, potentially driven by higher revenue growth, enhanced cost efficiency, or favorable market conditions.
Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Income
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🟢 ROE (Return on Equity, %) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
ASML's return on equity (ROE) for the most recent quarter is 51.2%, compared to 50.7% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 51.6%. This increase in ROE indicates improved profitability and more efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate earnings.
ROE Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
ROE Indicator
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🟢 ROA (Return on Assets, %)
Return on assets (ROA) for the most recent quarter is 20.1%, compared to 19.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 21.0%. This increase in ROA indicates improved efficiency in utilizing company assets to generate profits. The higher return suggests stronger operational performance and effective resource allocation.
ROA Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
ROA Indicator
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🟡 Operating Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
ASML's operating margin for the most recent quarter is 34.6%, compared to 35.4% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 38.1%. This decline in operating margin may indicate increased production or operational costs, pricing pressures, or lower revenue retention. A reduction in margin suggests that certain cost components are weighing on profitability, potentially requiring adjustments in expense management.
Operating Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
Operating Margin
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🟡 Net Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Net margin for the most recent quarter is 29.8%, compared to 30.4% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 33.7%. This decline in net margin may indicate rising operational costs, pricing pressures, or changes in revenue mix that are affecting overall profitability. A lower net margin suggests that expenses have grown at a faster rate than revenue, potentially requiring adjustments in cost management or pricing strategy.
Net Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
Net Margin
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🟢 Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
The current long-term debt is 4,199 million USD, and EBITDA is 3,333 million USD. The long-term debt to EBITDA ratio for the most recent quarter is 126.0%, compared to 123.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 97.6%. This increase in the long-term debt to EBITDA ratio may indicate higher leverage, reduced earnings capacity, or an increase in long-term debt obligations. A rising ratio suggests that ASML may be taking on additional debt or facing challenges in maintaining EBITDA growth.
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
Despite the increase, the ratio remains within the safe range, suggesting financial stability. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Despite the increase, the ratio remains within the safe range, suggesting financial stability. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
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🟢 Long-Term Debt & Assets
The current long-term debt is 4,199 million USD, and total assets are 50,913 million USD, resulting in a debt ratio of 8.2%. This increase in the long-term debt-to-assets ratio may indicate a higher dependency on long-term debt or a decrease in total assets, potentially leading to increased financial risk. A rising ratio suggests that ASML may be taking on additional liabilities or experiencing challenges in maintaining asset growth.
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
The debt-to-assets ratio remains in the low-risk range <40%, which is a sign of a strong financial position. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
The debt-to-assets ratio remains in the low-risk range <40%, which is a sign of a strong financial position. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
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🟢 Long-Term Debt & Equity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The current long-term debt is 4,199 million USD, while Total Equity stands at 20,000 million USD, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 21.0%. This decline in the long-term debt-to-equity ratio suggests improved financial strength, as the company is reducing its reliance on debt financing relative to its equity base. This may be the result of increased retained earnings, debt repayments, or higher equity financing, all of which contribute to a healthier balance sheet.
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
The current ratio remains within the safe range <50%, indicating a strong balance sheet with low financial risk and a conservative capital structure. A declining debt-to-equity ratio is generally a positive signal for investors, reflecting reduced leverage and improved financial flexibility.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
The current ratio remains within the safe range <50%, indicating a strong balance sheet with low financial risk and a conservative capital structure. A declining debt-to-equity ratio is generally a positive signal for investors, reflecting reduced leverage and improved financial flexibility.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
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🟡 Equity to Assets
The current equity is 20,000 million USD, while total assets stand at 50,913 million USD, resulting in an equity-to-assets ratio of 39.3%. This increase in the equity-to-assets ratio indicates a strengthening financial position, as the company is relying more on its own capital rather than external debt. The rise suggests higher retained earnings, new equity issuance, or asset appreciation, all of which contribute to long-term financial stability.
Equity to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (%)
Although the ratio has increased, it is still within the monitoring range 40%–50%, suggesting that while financial leverage is moderate, continued assessment is recommended. A rising equity-to-assets ratio is generally a positive sign for investors, as it indicates lower financial risk and improved capital structure.
Equity & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Equity to Assets Ratio
Although the ratio has increased, it is still within the monitoring range 40%–50%, suggesting that while financial leverage is moderate, continued assessment is recommended. A rising equity-to-assets ratio is generally a positive sign for investors, as it indicates lower financial risk and improved capital structure.
Equity & Assets
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🟢 Quick Ratio
The quick ratio for ASML is 0.81, compared to 0.91 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 0.75. This decline in the quick ratio may indicate lower liquidity, reduced cash reserves, or an increase in short-term liabilities. Despite the decline, the ratio remains within the cautionary range 0.8–1.0, suggesting that while liquidity levels are not yet critical, ongoing monitoring is necessary to ensure financial stability.
Quick Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
Quick Ratio
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🟢 Current Ratio
The current ratio for ASML is 1.43, compared to 1.52 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1.38. This decline in the current ratio may indicate a higher reliance on short-term liabilities, reduced cash flow, or increased working capital constraints. Despite the decrease, the ratio remains within the 1.0–2.0 range, which is still considered healthy, though further monitoring of working capital efficiency is advisable.
Current Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
Current Ratio
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🟡 Net Working Capital
The net working capital (NWC) for ASML in the most recent quarter is 9,189 million USD, compared to 9,903 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 8,202 million USD.
Net Working Capital
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Working Capital
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🔴 Inventory Turnover Ratio
The inventory turnover ratio for ASML in the most recent quarter is 1.26, compared to 1.21 in the previous quarter. This increase in inventory turnover indicates that ASML is selling goods more rapidly, suggesting strong demand, efficient inventory management, and optimized supply chain processes. The turnover ratio has fallen below the 3.0, indicating low inventory turnover, which may result in excessive stockpiling, potential obsolescence, or weak demand. This situation requires closer monitoring to prevent liquidity constraints.
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
Inventory Turnover Ratio
🔴 Asset Turnover Ratio
The assets turnover ratio for ASML in the most recent quarter is 0.69, compared to 0.69 in the previous quarter. This decline in the assets turnover ratio may suggest lower revenue generation, excess assets, or inefficiencies in assets utilization. A decreasing trend could indicate weaker sales growth or an overinvestment in fixed assets. The ratio has fallen below the 1.0, suggesting that ASML may have a high level of assets relative to revenue generation. This could indicate underutilized resources or the need for improved asset efficiency.
Assets Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
Assets Turnover Ratio
🔴 Book Value / Share
The book value per share (BVPS) is a key valuation metric that represents the equity value per outstanding share. Calculated by dividing total book value by the number of shares, it helps assess whether a stock trades above or below its book value.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (USD)
Book Value per Share Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (USD, generated on 16 July 2025)
| Q2 24 | Q2 25 | Change (%) | |
| Book Value / Share | 40.21 | 51.55 | 28.20 % |
Book Value per Share Valuation
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🔴 Graham Method
The intrinsic value of ASML’s stock is calculated using Benjamin Graham’s formula, which takes into account the current earnings per share (EPS) and an assumed growth rate (g), providing a simplified yet insightful perspective on a company’s value.
Benjamin Graham Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (USD, generated on 16 July 2025)
Benjamin Graham Valuation
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🟢 Discounted Cash Flow ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The discounted cash flow (DCF) method is used to estimate ASML’s intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This approach considers the company’s potential to generate cash flows in the future, taking into account the time value of money and associated risks.
The terminal value represents the value of ASML’s cash flows beyond the five-year forecast horizon. It is calculated using the Gordon Growth Model, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 6.0% and WACC of 7.9%. The calculated terminal value is 1,295,863 million USD.
Total Intrinsic Value Calculations
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Assuming 388 million shares outstanding, the intrinsic value per share is approximately 2,436.97 USD. The current market price of ASML’s stock is 1,271.63 USD. Discounted cash flow valuation indicates that the stock is 47.8% undervalued, trading below its intrinsic value.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (USD, generated on 16 July 2025)
| Value | |
| Present Value of FCFs | 59,918 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 885,627 |
| Total Intrinsic Value | 945,545 |
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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🟢 Assets Correlation
The Pearson correlation analysis for ASML examines the relationship between share price and key financial indicators. Gross profit has a correlation of 0.91, which indicates a strong relationship, meaning profitability is a key driver of stock price movements. Operating income is correlated at 0.87, highlighting a strong relationship between operating profitability and market valuation.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports
Current liabilities are correlated at 0.91, implying that short-term obligations are closely monitored by investors, influencing stock valuation. Total assets have a correlation of 0.94, confirming a strong relationship between asset growth and market performance.
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports, Index=100 on Q4 10
| Pearson Correlation | |
| Share Price | 1 |
| Gross Profit | 0.91 |
| Operating Income | 0.87 |
| Current Liabilities | 0.91 |
| Total Assets | 0.94 |
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
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🟡 FCF Margin Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: 34%, driven by operational efficiencies and cost optimisation.
• Base Case: 26% of revenue, consistent with historical trends.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 19%, reflecting higher operating and labour costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
An approximately 8-percentage-point increase in the FCF margin to 34%, results in an additional 2,645 milion USD in FCF, highlighting the critical role of operational efficiency. Conversely, a decrease to 19% reduces FCF by 2,606 milion USD, illustrating the significant impact of profitability on cash flow generation.
Projected FCF Margin Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: 26% of revenue, consistent with historical trends.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 19%, reflecting higher operating and labour costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| FCF Margin (%) | Revenue TTM | FCF TTM | Difference | |
| Optimistic | 34% | 35,005 | 11,902 | 2,645 |
| Base Case | 26% | 35,005 | 9,257 | – |
| Pessimistic | 19% | 35,005 | 6,651 | -2,606 |
Projected FCF Margin Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Operating Costs Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: 63%, reflecting enhanced efficiency and lower costs.
• Base Case: 65% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 67%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Reducing operational costs to 63% of revenue leads to a 767 milion USD increase in operating profit, emphasising the significance of cost control in enhancing margins. Increasing costs to 67% of revenue results in a 633 milion USD decline in operating profit, highlighting the sensitivity of profitability to rising expenses.
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: 65% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 67%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| Operating Costs (%) | Revenue TTM | Operating Profit | Difference | |
| Optimistic | 63% | 35,005 | 12,952 | 767 |
| Base Case | 65% | 35,005 | 12,185 | – |
| Pessimistic | 67% | 35,005 | 11,552 | -633 |
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Revenue Growth Scenarios
Optimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 24% annually, driven by:
• Robust macroeconomic conditions.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 20% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 16% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD, TTM)
The projected revenue for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, revenue is expected to increase by 24% to 43,330 million USD, reflecting strong market growth and operational efficiency. In the base case scenario, revenue is forecasted to grow by 20% to 41,943 million USD, assuming stable economic conditions and consistent business expansion. However, under the pessimistic scenario, revenue is projected to increase by 16% to 40,555 million USD, reflecting potential economic slowdowns or adverse market conditions.
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the ASML's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 20% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 16% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
| Revenue | Net Income | Revenue (Next) | Net Income (Next) | |
| Optimistic | 35,005 | 10,246 | 43,330 | 12,683 |
| Base Case | 35,005 | 10,246 | 41,943 | 12,277 |
| Pessimistic | 35,005 | 10,246 | 40,555 | 11,871 |
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the ASML's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
🟡 Net Income Growth Scenarios
The projected net income for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, net income is expected to increase by 24% to 12,683 million USD, reflecting improved profitability and strong financial performance. In the base case scenario, net income is forecasted to grow by 20% to 12,277 million USD, assuming stable market conditions and effective cost management. However, under the pessimistic scenario, net income is projected to increase by 16% to 11,871 million USD, reflecting potential challenges such as higher operational costs or slowing revenue growth.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
The projected resilience in net income across all scenarios suggests a stable underlying profitability profile. Even under adverse assumptions, the ASML is expected to maintain earnings growth, indicating effective cost controls and strong core operations. This consistency can help support valuation multiples and reduce perceived investment risk. Scenario modeling enhances transparency and strengthens the credibility of financial forecasting in the eyes of stakeholders.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
The projected resilience in net income across all scenarios suggests a stable underlying profitability profile. Even under adverse assumptions, the ASML is expected to maintain earnings growth, indicating effective cost controls and strong core operations. This consistency can help support valuation multiples and reduce perceived investment risk. Scenario modeling enhances transparency and strengthens the credibility of financial forecasting in the eyes of stakeholders.
🟢 Financial Performance Overview
ASML demonstrated stronger financial performance in the most recent period, reflecting strong revenue growth, operational efficiency, and profitability improvements revenue increased by 29.9% year-over-year, reaching 8,732 million USD, supported by strong sales performance across all key markets. At the same time, EBITDA grew by 50.2% year-over-year, totaling 3,333 million USD, driven by cost optimization and higher-margin business segments.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
Notably, net income surged by 53.0% year-over-year, reaching 2,600 million USD, improving ASML's net margin, which expanded to 29.8%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Revenue & Net Income
Notably, net income surged by 53.0% year-over-year, reaching 2,600 million USD, improving ASML's net margin, which expanded to 29.8%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (YoY)
Valuation & Market Position
ASML’s valuation metrics indicate a weakened financial standing. The EV to EBITDA (TTM) ratio currently stands at 25.09, increasing from 22.95, reflecting improved operating earnings (EBITDA), suggesting stronger fundamentals. This suggests a high enterprise valuation relative to earnings.
EV to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (TTM)
The EV to EBITDA trendline illustrates ASML’s valuation trajectory, with an increasing enterprise value supported by improving earnings, suggesting healthy investor confidence.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (TTM)
Meanwhile, the P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio has declined to 30.3, down from 43.2 a year ago, potentially signaling a more balanced market outlook on ASML’s earnings potential. The P/S (Price to Sales) ratio has declined to 8.86, compared to 11.41 a year ago, suggesting a more conservative valuation stance among investors.
| Change (%) | |
| Revenue Growth | 29.9% |
| EBITDA Growth | 50.2% |
| Net Income Growth | 53.0% |
| Net Margin | 29.8% |
| EPS | 42.4% |
EV to EBITDA Ratio
The EV to EBITDA trendline illustrates ASML’s valuation trajectory, with an increasing enterprise value supported by improving earnings, suggesting healthy investor confidence.
| Ratio (TTM) | |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.09 |
| P/E Ratio | 48.15 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.86 |
Cash Flow & Liquidity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
ASML maintains a strengthened cash flow position, highlighting improved liquidity and prudent financial management. The increase in cash flow suggests enhanced operational efficiency and a stronger ability to meet financial obligations.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF) – totaled 358 million USD, marking an improvement in liquidity.
• Net Operating Cash Flow – increased by 1118.9% year-over-year, reaching 2,445 million USD, showcasing strong core business cash generation.
• Long-term debt – decreased by 13.5%, strengthening the company’s financial structure and reducing interest burdens.
ASML’s ability to generate substantial cash flow while reducing debt reinforces its financial flexibility, allowing for potential future investments in innovation, logistics, and technology expansion.
Free Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, ASML Financial Reports (million USD)
ASML's financial performance in the most recent quarter shows that EBITDA reached 3,333 million USD, reflecting improved operational efficiency and earnings growth. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 51.2%, suggesting enhanced capital utilization and stronger profitability. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 21.0%, indicating a more resilient balance sheet and lower financial risk. The quick ratio is 0.81, highlighting tightened liquidity conditions and the need for cautious cash management. The EV/EBITDA ratio is currently 25.09x, suggesting that the stock may be trading at a premium, potentially pricing in high growth expectations. Overall, ASML’s financial health remains strong, with consistent revenue expansion, cost efficiency improvements, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is increasing, while ASML’s long-term prospects remain positive.
Free Cash Flow
ASML's financial performance in the most recent quarter shows that EBITDA reached 3,333 million USD, reflecting improved operational efficiency and earnings growth. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 51.2%, suggesting enhanced capital utilization and stronger profitability. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 21.0%, indicating a more resilient balance sheet and lower financial risk. The quick ratio is 0.81, highlighting tightened liquidity conditions and the need for cautious cash management. The EV/EBITDA ratio is currently 25.09x, suggesting that the stock may be trading at a premium, potentially pricing in high growth expectations. Overall, ASML’s financial health remains strong, with consistent revenue expansion, cost efficiency improvements, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is increasing, while ASML’s long-term prospects remain positive.
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