Eli Lilly & Co
[LLY]
NYSE
MVPro™ Score: 63/100
Last Earnings: 07 Aug 2025
[LLY]
NYSE
MVPro™ Score: 63/100
Last Earnings: 07 Aug 2025
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| Capitalization (mln USD) | 723,899 |
| Revenue (mln USD) | 12,729 |
| EBITDA (mln USD) | 4,158 |
| Net Income (mln USD) | 2,759 |
| Net Margin | 21.67% |
| EPS Ratio (TTM, USD) | 12.33 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 65.18 |
| P/S Ratio (TTM) | 15.15 |
| D/E Ratio | 4.64 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 51.08 |
| CAPEX (Q/Q) | 86.95% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.74% |
Revenue, EBITDA & Net Income
Company Overview
Eli Lilly and Company is a global pharmaceutical company founded in 1876 by Colonel Eli Lilly in Indianapolis, Indiana, where the company still maintains its global headquarters. With nearly 150 years of history, the firm has consistently been a leader in medical innovation, focusing on research and development of treatments that address some of the world’s most pressing health challenges.
The company specialises in the development and manufacturing of prescription medicines in areas such as oncology, diabetes, immunology, and neuroscience. Among its most well-known products are Trulicity (for type 2 diabetes), Mounjaro (a dual GIP/GLP-1 receptor agonist), and Verzenio (for breast cancer). Eli Lilly operates in over 120 countries and is led by CEO David A. Ricks, who has held the position since 2017.
Eli Lilly’s mission is to make life better for people around the world, which is reflected in its commitment to innovation, access to healthcare, and ethical business practices. The company maintains a strong ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) focus, with detailed goals on climate action, diversity and inclusion, and patient access. As a major player in the global healthcare industry, Eli Lilly continues to drive forward scientific discovery while aligning with long-term sustainability and social responsibility goals.
🔴 P/E (Price to Earnings, TTM)
Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the most recent quarter is 66.9, compared to 65.7 in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 77.4. This increase in the P/E ratio suggests a higher valuation of the company by investors, potentially driven by strong growth expectations, earnings stability, or increased market confidence.
P/E Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (TTM)
P/E Ratio
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🟢 EPS (Earnings Per Share, TTM)
Eli Lilly's earnings per share (EPS) for the most recent quarter is 12.33 USD (+5.2%), compared to 11.71 USD in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 13.15 USD. This quarterly increase in EPS suggests improved profitability and operational efficiency.
EPS
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (TTM, USD)
EPS
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🔴 P/B (Price to Book)
Price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the most recent quarter stands at 46.86 (-3.8%), compared to 48.72 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 59.03. This decline in the P/B ratio may indicate a more conservative market stance on the company’s asset valuation, potentially influenced by shifting investor sentiment, changes in financial fundamentals, or broader economic conditions.
P/B Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
P/B Ratio
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🟢 EBIT
EBIT for Eli Lilly in the most recent quarter is 3,695 million USD, compared to 1,887 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 4,429 million USD. This increase reflects improved operational performance and higher profitability, aligning with the long-term growth trajectory.
EBIT
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
EBIT
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🟡 Risk Assessment
Below is a factual risk assessment for Eli Lilly and Company, reflecting potential threats that may affect the company’s operations, performance, and long-term sustainability.
Market Risk
Eli Lilly operates in a highly competitive global pharmaceutical market, facing constant pressure from generic manufacturers and innovative biotech firms. Shifts in consumer demand, especially with regard to newer biologics and personalised medicine, can significantly affect sales. Currency fluctuations, particularly against the US dollar, may also impact international revenues.
Financial Risk
The company maintains a strong balance sheet, but it remains exposed to risks from changes in interest rates and debt markets, particularly in funding research and acquisitions. Any unexpected rise in R&D costs without successful product outcomes could pressure profit margins. Moreover, patent expirations on key drugs may reduce income and increase dependency on pipeline success.
Operational Risk
Eli Lilly relies heavily on complex global supply chains, which can be disrupted by geopolitical events, pandemics, or natural disasters. The company also depends on continued success in drug development, where clinical trial failures can cause financial and reputational harm. Cybersecurity threats to proprietary research data and intellectual property remain an ongoing operational concern.
Regulatory Risk
As a pharmaceutical company, Eli Lilly is subject to extensive regulation across all markets, including the FDA in the US and EMA in Europe. Changes in healthcare policies, drug pricing reforms, or increased scrutiny on clinical trials may impact approval timelines and market access. Non-compliance can lead to legal actions, fines, or even product withdrawals.
Overall Risk Assessment
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🟢 Piotroski F-Score Analysis
Piotroski F-Score analysis is a robust methodology designed to assess the financial strength and operational efficiency of companies, providing valuable insights for investment decision-making.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
| Previous TTM | Current TTM | Score | |
| Net Income | 6,139 | 11,106 | 1 |
| ROA | 10.20% | 14.08% | 1 |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 21,290 | 764 | 1 |
| OCF > Net Income | 17,247 | -1,788 | 0 |
| Long-Term Debt | 78,963 | 115,802 | 0 |
| Current Ratio | 1.35 | 1.37 | 1 |
| New Shares Issued (mln) | 904 | 901 | 1 |
| Gross Margin | 80.16% | 81.70% | 1 |
| Total Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.6 | 0.62 | 1 |
| Piotroski F-Score | 7/9 |
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🟢 Altman Z-Score Analysis
Altman Z-Score is a widely recognised financial metric used to evaluate the risk of bankruptcy for companies. It is particularly relevant for assessing the creditworthiness of manufacturing and industrial companies but has also been adapted for other industries.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
| Q1 25 | |||
| Altman Z-Score (TTM) | 8.64 | ||
| 0 | Distress | 1.8 | Grey | 2.99 | Safe | 4 |
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
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🟡 Key Assets Components
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
As of last quarter the company reported total assets of 89,389 million USD, representing an increase of 39.8% compared to the previous year the same quarter 63,944 million USD. The largest contributor to this change in current assets was Inventory, which grew by 52.6% to 9,311 million USD from 6,102 million USD.
Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q1 24 | Q1 25 | Change (%) | |
| Cash & Short-Term Inv | 2,586 | 3,221 | 24.56% |
| Inventory | 6,102 | 9,311 | 52.59% |
| Receivables | 10,014 | 14,003 | 39.83% |
| Total Current Assets | 25,189 | 41,261 | 63.81% |
| Property and Equipment | 13,624 | 18,474 | 35.60% |
| Goodwill, Intangibles | 11,702 | 11,783 | 0.69% |
| Other Long-Term Assets | 4,708 | 6,075 | 29.04% |
| Total Assets | 63,944 | 89,389 | 39.79% |
Assets
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🔴 Key Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Total current liabilities increased by 61.7%, indicating a potential growth in operational activities. This change may affect the company's ability to manage its working capital efficiently. Long-term debt increased by 40.5%, suggesting a rise in long-term obligations. This shift could have implications for the Eli Lilly's financing costs and overall debt strategy.
Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q1 24 | Q1 25 | Change (%) | |
| Accounts Payable | 2,473 | 3,442 | 39.18% |
| Accrued Expenses, Other | 9,429 | 11,550 | 22.49% |
| Total Current Liabilities | 18,598 | 30,068 | 61.67% |
| Long-term Lease | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Long-term Debt | 24,560 | 34,500 | 40.47% |
| Total Liabilities | 51,046 | 73,542 | 44.07% |
| Shareholders’ Equity | 12,897 | 15,847 | 22.87% |
Liabilities & Equity
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🟡 Income Statement Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
As of Q1 25, Eli Lilly reported a revenue of 12,729 million USD, marking an increase of 45.2% compared to the previous year to 8,768 million USD. Operating expenses rose to 6,809 million USD, increasing by 36.6% year-on-year from 4,983 million USD.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q1 24 | Q1 25 | Change (%) | |
| Revenue | 8,768 | 12,729 | 45.18% |
| Operating Expenses | 4,983 | 6,809 | 36.64% |
| Operating Income | 2,509 | 3,695 | 47.27% |
| Net Income | 2,243 | 2,759 | 23.00% |
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Revenue & Net Income
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🟢 Cash Flow Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
The company’s cash flow performance over the year demonstrates varied trends across key categories. Net operating cash flows increased by 42.9% from 1,166 million USD to 1,666 million USD, reflecting stronger cash generation from core business activities. Net investing cash flows decreased by 184.6% from -1,178 million USD to -3,352 million USD, indicating higher expenditure on investments, potentially related to strategic initiatives.
Operating Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q1 24 | Q1 25 | Change (%) | |
| Net Operating Cash Flows | 1,166 | 1,666 | 42.88% |
| Net Investing Cash Flows | -1,178 | -3,352 | -184.55% |
| Net Financing Cash Flows | -311 | 1,380 | 543.73% |
| Net Cash Flow, Equivalents | -323 | -306 | 5.26% |
Operating Cash Flow
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🟢 EBITDA
Eli Lilly's EBITDA for the most recent quarter is 4,158 milion USD (+75.3%), compared to 2,372 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 4,820 milion USD. This increase in EBITDA suggests improved operational efficiency and revenue growth, indicating stronger core business performance.
EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
EBITDA
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🟡 Net Income
Net income for the most recent quarter is 2,759 milion USD (-37.4%), compared to 4,410 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 2,869 milion USD. This decline in net income may indicate increased operational costs, lower revenue generation, or external market challenges affecting profitability.
Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Income
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🟡 ROE (Return on Equity, %) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Eli Lilly's return on equity (ROE) for the most recent quarter is 70.1%, compared to 74.2% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 76.5%. This decline in ROE may indicate reduced profitability, increased equity base, or other financial challenges affecting the company's return on investment.
ROE Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
ROE Indicator
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🟡 ROA (Return on Assets, %)
Return on assets (ROA) for the most recent quarter is 12.4%, compared to 13.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 12.7%. This decline in ROA may indicate lower profitability, increased asset base, or operational inefficiencies affecting the company's ability to generate returns.
ROA Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
ROA Indicator
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🟢 Operating Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Eli Lilly's operating margin for the most recent quarter is 29.0%, compared to 13.9% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 31.3%. This increase in operating margin reflects improved cost efficiency, higher revenue retention, or a stronger pricing strategy. The rise suggests that Eli Lilly is effectively managing its operational expenses while maintaining revenue growth.
Operating Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
Operating Margin
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🟡 Net Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Net margin for the most recent quarter is 21.7%, compared to 32.6% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 20.4%. This decline in net margin may indicate rising operational costs, pricing pressures, or changes in revenue mix that are affecting overall profitability. A lower net margin suggests that expenses have grown at a faster rate than revenue, potentially requiring adjustments in cost management or pricing strategy.
Net Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
Net Margin
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🔴 Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
The current long-term debt is 34,500 million USD, and EBITDA is 4,158 million USD. The long-term debt to EBITDA ratio for the most recent quarter is 829.7%, compared to 1202.7% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 803.0%. This decline in the long-term debt to EBITDA ratio suggests an improvement in the company's ability to manage and service its long-term debt obligations. The lower ratio indicates stronger financial flexibility, potentially driven by higher earnings generation or reduced leverage.
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
Despite the decrease, the ratio remains above 400%, which may still indicate financial concerns that require careful monitoring. A declining trend in this ratio is typically a positive sign for investors, as it implies reduced financial risk and an improved capacity to meet long-term liabilities.
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Despite the decrease, the ratio remains above 400%, which may still indicate financial concerns that require careful monitoring. A declining trend in this ratio is typically a positive sign for investors, as it implies reduced financial risk and an improved capacity to meet long-term liabilities.
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
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🟢 Long-Term Debt & Assets
The current long-term debt is 34,500 million USD, and total assets are 89,389 million USD, resulting in a debt ratio of 38.6%. This increase in the long-term debt-to-assets ratio may indicate a higher dependency on long-term debt or a decrease in total assets, potentially leading to increased financial risk. A rising ratio suggests that Eli Lilly may be taking on additional liabilities or experiencing challenges in maintaining asset growth.
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
The debt-to-assets ratio remains in the low-risk range <40%, which is a sign of a strong financial position. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
The debt-to-assets ratio remains in the low-risk range <40%, which is a sign of a strong financial position. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future financial performance to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in the company's capital structure.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
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🔴 Long-Term Debt & Equity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The current long-term debt is 34,500 million USD, while Total Equity stands at 15,847 million USD, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 217.7%. This increase in the long-term debt-to-equity ratio may indicate a greater reliance on leverage, which could increase financial risk. A rising ratio suggests that Eli Lilly may be taking on additional debt obligations or experiencing challenges in equity growth, which could impact long-term financial stability.
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
The ratio remains within the elevated range 150%–250%, indicating a growing reliance on debt financing. While not yet critical, careful monitoring of leverage and interest obligations is advised. Investors and analysts will closely monitor upcoming financial reports to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in financial strategy.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
The ratio remains within the elevated range 150%–250%, indicating a growing reliance on debt financing. While not yet critical, careful monitoring of leverage and interest obligations is advised. Investors and analysts will closely monitor upcoming financial reports to determine whether this increase reflects temporary fluctuations or a more significant shift in financial strategy.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
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🔴 Equity to Assets
The current equity is 15,847 million USD, while total assets stand at 89,389 million USD, resulting in an equity-to-assets ratio of 17.7%. This decline in the equity-to-assets ratio may signal increased financial leverage or a reduction in equity levels. A falling ratio suggests that Eli Lilly may be increasing its reliance on debt financing or facing equity dilution, which could affect long-term financial resilience.
Equity to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (%)
The ratio has now dropped below the 30% threshold, signaling potential financial vulnerability. A lower equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk in uncertain market conditions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future capital allocation strategies to determine whether this decrease is a short-term fluctuation or a longer-term structural change.
Equity & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Equity to Assets Ratio
The ratio has now dropped below the 30% threshold, signaling potential financial vulnerability. A lower equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk in uncertain market conditions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future capital allocation strategies to determine whether this decrease is a short-term fluctuation or a longer-term structural change.
Equity & Assets
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🟢 Quick Ratio
The quick ratio for Eli Lilly is 1.06, compared to 0.89 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 0.90. This increase in the quick ratio suggests improved short-term liquidity, indicating that the company has a stronger ability to cover its immediate liabilities with liquid assets. The current level is above 1.0, which is considered financially healthy, demonstrating that the company maintains a solid liquidity position.
Quick Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
Quick Ratio
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🟢 Current Ratio
The current ratio for Eli Lilly is 1.37, compared to 1.15 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1.15. This increase in the current ratio suggests improved liquidity, indicating that the company has a stronger ability to cover its short-term liabilities with current assets. Although the ratio has increased, it remains within the optimal range of 1.0–2.0, ensuring a healthy balance between liquidity and operational efficiency.
Current Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
Current Ratio
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🟢 Net Working Capital
The net working capital (NWC) for Eli Lilly in the most recent quarter is 11,193 million USD, compared to 4,363 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 5,146 million USD.
Net Working Capital
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Working Capital
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🔴 Inventory Turnover Ratio
The inventory turnover ratio for Eli Lilly in the most recent quarter is 0.96, compared to 0.90 in the previous quarter. This increase in inventory turnover indicates that Eli Lilly is selling goods more rapidly, suggesting strong demand, efficient inventory management, and optimized supply chain processes. The turnover ratio has fallen below the 3.0, indicating low inventory turnover, which may result in excessive stockpiling, potential obsolescence, or weak demand. This situation requires closer monitoring to prevent liquidity constraints.
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
Inventory Turnover Ratio
🔴 Asset Turnover Ratio
The assets turnover ratio for Eli Lilly in the most recent quarter is 0.55, compared to 0.57 in the previous quarter. This decline in the assets turnover ratio may suggest lower revenue generation, excess assets, or inefficiencies in assets utilization. A decreasing trend could indicate weaker sales growth or an overinvestment in fixed assets. The ratio has fallen below the 1.0, suggesting that Eli Lilly may have a high level of assets relative to revenue generation. This could indicate underutilized resources or the need for improved asset efficiency.
Assets Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
Assets Turnover Ratio
🔴 Book Value / Share
The book value per share (BVPS) is a key valuation metric that represents the equity value per outstanding share. Calculated by dividing total book value by the number of shares, it helps assess whether a stock trades above or below its book value.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (USD)
Book Value per Share Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (USD, generated on 1 May 2025)
| Q1 24 | Q1 25 | Change (%) | |
| Book Value / Share | 14.27 | 17.59 | 23.27 % |
Book Value per Share Valuation
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🔴 Graham Method
The intrinsic value of Eli Lilly’s stock is calculated using Benjamin Graham’s formula, which takes into account the current earnings per share (EPS) and an assumed growth rate (g), providing a simplified yet insightful perspective on a company’s value.
Benjamin Graham Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (USD, generated on 1 May 2025)
Benjamin Graham Valuation
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🔴 Discounted Cash Flow ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The discounted cash flow (DCF) method is used to estimate Eli Lilly’s intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This approach considers the company’s potential to generate cash flows in the future, taking into account the time value of money and associated risks.
The terminal value represents the value of Eli Lilly’s cash flows beyond the five-year forecast horizon. It is calculated using the Gordon Growth Model, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% and WACC of 6.0%. The calculated terminal value is -56,923 million USD.
Total Intrinsic Value Calculations
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Assuming 901 million shares outstanding, the intrinsic value per share is approximately -55.15 USD. The current market price of Eli Lilly’s stock is 803.44 USD. Discounted cash flow valuation indicates that the stock is 1556.9% overvalued, trading above its intrinsic value.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (USD, generated on 1 May 2025)
| Value | |
| Present Value of FCFs | -7,092 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | -42,596 |
| Total Intrinsic Value | -49,688 |
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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🟢 Assets Correlation
The Pearson correlation analysis for Eli Lilly examines the relationship between share price and key financial indicators. Gross profit has a correlation of 0.92, which indicates a strong relationship, meaning profitability is a key driver of stock price movements. Operating income is correlated at 0.69, indicating a moderate influence on stock price movements.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports
Current liabilities are correlated at 0.94, implying that short-term obligations are closely monitored by investors, influencing stock valuation. Total assets have a correlation of 0.95, confirming a strong relationship between asset growth and market performance.
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports, Index=100 on Q3 10
| Pearson Correlation | |
| Share Price | 1 |
| Gross Profit | 0.92 |
| Operating Income | 0.69 |
| Current Liabilities | 0.94 |
| Total Assets | 0.95 |
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
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🟡 FCF Margin Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: -3%, driven by operational efficiencies and cost optimisation.
• Base Case: -3% of revenue, consistent with historical trends.
• Pessimistic Scenario: -2%, reflecting higher operating and labour costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
An approximately -0-percentage-point increase in the FCF margin to -3%, results in an additional -201 milion USD in FCF, highlighting the critical role of operational efficiency. Conversely, a decrease to -2% reduces FCF by 289 milion USD, illustrating the significant impact of profitability on cash flow generation.
Projected FCF Margin Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: -3% of revenue, consistent with historical trends.
• Pessimistic Scenario: -2%, reflecting higher operating and labour costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| FCF Margin (%) | Revenue TTM | FCF TTM | Difference | |
| Optimistic | -3% | 49,004 | -1,470 | -201 |
| Base Case | -3% | 49,004 | -1,269 | – |
| Pessimistic | -2% | 49,004 | -980 | 289 |
Projected FCF Margin Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Operating Costs Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: 69%, reflecting enhanced efficiency and lower costs.
• Base Case: 71% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 73%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Reducing operational costs to 69% of revenue leads to a 1,106 milion USD increase in operating profit, emphasising the significance of cost control in enhancing margins. Increasing costs to 73% of revenue results in a 854 milion USD decline in operating profit, highlighting the sensitivity of profitability to rising expenses.
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: 71% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 73%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| Operating Costs (%) | Revenue TTM | Operating Profit | Difference | |
| Optimistic | 69% | 49,004 | 15,191 | 1,106 |
| Base Case | 71% | 49,004 | 14,085 | – |
| Pessimistic | 73% | 49,004 | 13,231 | -854 |
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Revenue Growth Scenarios
Optimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 19% annually, driven by:
• Robust macroeconomic conditions.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 16% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 13% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD, TTM)
The projected revenue for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, revenue is expected to increase by 19% to 58,556 million USD, reflecting strong market growth and operational efficiency. In the base case scenario, revenue is forecasted to grow by 16% to 56,964 million USD, assuming stable economic conditions and consistent business expansion. However, under the pessimistic scenario, revenue is projected to increase by 13% to 55,372 million USD, reflecting potential economic slowdowns or adverse market conditions.
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the Eli Lilly's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 16% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 13% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
| Revenue | Net Income | Revenue (Next) | Net Income (Next) | |
| Optimistic | 49,004 | 11,106 | 58,556 | 13,271 |
| Base Case | 49,004 | 11,106 | 56,964 | 12,910 |
| Pessimistic | 49,004 | 11,106 | 55,372 | 12,549 |
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the Eli Lilly's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
🟡 Net Income Growth Scenarios
The projected net income for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, net income is expected to increase by 19% to 13,271 million USD, reflecting improved profitability and strong financial performance. In the base case scenario, net income is forecasted to grow by 16% to 12,910 million USD, assuming stable market conditions and effective cost management. However, under the pessimistic scenario, net income is projected to increase by 13% to 12,549 million USD, reflecting potential challenges such as higher operational costs or slowing revenue growth.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
The projected resilience in net income across all scenarios suggests a stable underlying profitability profile. Even under adverse assumptions, the Eli Lilly is expected to maintain earnings growth, indicating effective cost controls and strong core operations. This consistency can help support valuation multiples and reduce perceived investment risk. Scenario modeling enhances transparency and strengthens the credibility of financial forecasting in the eyes of stakeholders.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
The projected resilience in net income across all scenarios suggests a stable underlying profitability profile. Even under adverse assumptions, the Eli Lilly is expected to maintain earnings growth, indicating effective cost controls and strong core operations. This consistency can help support valuation multiples and reduce perceived investment risk. Scenario modeling enhances transparency and strengthens the credibility of financial forecasting in the eyes of stakeholders.
🟡 Financial Performance Overview
Eli Lilly demonstrated stronger financial performance in the most recent period, reflecting strong revenue growth, operational efficiency, and profitability improvements revenue increased by 45.2% year-over-year, reaching 12,729 million USD, supported by strong sales performance across all key markets. At the same time, EBITDA grew by 42.9% year-over-year, totaling 4,158 million USD, driven by cost optimization and higher-margin business segments.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Notably, net income surged by 23.0% year-over-year, reaching 2,759 million USD, negatively impacting Eli Lilly's net margin, which expanded to 21.7%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Revenue & Net Income
Notably, net income surged by 23.0% year-over-year, reaching 2,759 million USD, negatively impacting Eli Lilly's net margin, which expanded to 21.7%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (YoY)
Valuation & Market Position
Eli Lilly’s valuation metrics indicate a strengthened financial standing. The EV to EBITDA (TTM) ratio currently stands at 51.08, decreasing from 51.57, reflecting improved operating earnings (EBITDA), suggesting stronger fundamentals. This suggests a high enterprise valuation relative to earnings..
EV to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (TTM)
The EV to EBITDA trendline illustrates Eli Lilly’s valuation trajectory, with an increasing enterprise value supported by improving earnings, suggesting healthy investor confidence.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (TTM)
Meanwhile, the P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio has declined to 66.9, down from 110.7 a year ago, potentially signaling a more balanced market outlook on Eli Lilly’s earnings potential. The P/S (Price to Sales) ratio has declined to 15.15, compared to 20.88 a year ago, suggesting a more conservative valuation stance among investors.
| Change (%) | |
| Revenue Growth | 45.2% |
| EBITDA Growth | 42.9% |
| Net Income Growth | 23.0% |
| Net Margin | 21.7% |
| EPS | 81.5% |
EV to EBITDA Ratio
The EV to EBITDA trendline illustrates Eli Lilly’s valuation trajectory, with an increasing enterprise value supported by improving earnings, suggesting healthy investor confidence.
| Ratio (TTM) | |
| EV/EBITDA | 51.08 |
| P/E Ratio | 65.18 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.15 |
Cash Flow & Liquidity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Eli Lilly is experiencing a weakened cash flow position, reflecting potential liquidity challenges. The decline in cash flow may indicate increased operational costs or reduced cash inflows, requiring closer financial monitoring and strategic adjustments.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF) – totaled -1,600 million USD, indicating a decline in available cash resources, requiring enhanced financial oversight.
• Net Operating Cash Flow – declined by 96.4% year-over-year, reaching 764 million USD, suggesting weaker cash inflows from operating activities.
• Long-term debt – increased by 46.7%, which may lead to higher financial leverage and increased interest obligations.
Eli Lilly’s ability to generate declining cash flow while increasing debt reinforces its financial flexibility, though ongoing financial management is essential to sustain long-term growth and strategic investments.
Free Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Eli Lilly Financial Reports (million USD)
Eli Lilly's financial performance in the most recent quarter shows that EBITDA reached 4,158 million USD, reflecting improved operational efficiency and earnings growth. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 70.1%, pointing to reduced return on shareholder capital and weaker financial performance. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 217.7%, which may reflect rising leverage and a shift toward debt-based financing. The quick ratio is 1.06, showing improved liquidity and better short-term risk coverage. The EV/EBITDA ratio is currently 51.08x, reflecting a balanced or attractive valuation level relative to earnings. Overall, Eli Lilly’s financial health remains under pressure, with some revenue challenges, cost efficiency improvements, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is increasing, while Eli Lilly’s long-term prospects remain uncertain.
Free Cash Flow
Eli Lilly's financial performance in the most recent quarter shows that EBITDA reached 4,158 million USD, reflecting improved operational efficiency and earnings growth. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 70.1%, pointing to reduced return on shareholder capital and weaker financial performance. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 217.7%, which may reflect rising leverage and a shift toward debt-based financing. The quick ratio is 1.06, showing improved liquidity and better short-term risk coverage. The EV/EBITDA ratio is currently 51.08x, reflecting a balanced or attractive valuation level relative to earnings. Overall, Eli Lilly’s financial health remains under pressure, with some revenue challenges, cost efficiency improvements, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is increasing, while Eli Lilly’s long-term prospects remain uncertain.
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