Mastercard Inc.
[MA]
NYSE
MVPro™ Score: 67/100
Last Earnings: 04 Feb 2026
[MA]
NYSE
MVPro™ Score: 67/100
Last Earnings: 04 Feb 2026
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| Capitalization (mln USD) | 490,968 |
| Revenue (mln USD) | 8,602 |
| EBITDA (mln USD) | 5,475 |
| Net Income (mln USD) | 3,927 |
| Net Margin | 45.65% |
| EPS Ratio (TTM, USD) | 15.83 |
| P/E Ratio (TTM) | 34.45 |
| P/S Ratio (TTM) | 15.73 |
| D/E Ratio | 5.74 |
| EV/EBITDA (TTM) | 27.29 |
| CAPEX (Q/Q) | 71.77% |
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% |
Revenue, EBITDA & Net Income
Company Overview
Mastercard Inc. is a leading global payments technology company, originally founded in 1966 as Interbank Card Association and later rebranded as Mastercard in 1979. The company is headquartered in Purchase, New York, and operates in more than 210 countries and territories, connecting consumers, financial institutions, merchants, governments, and businesses through a secure payments network.
Mastercard provides a wide range of services including credit, debit, and prepaid card processing, as well as digital payment solutions, cybersecurity, and data analytics. Its core infrastructure, known as the Mastercard Network, supports billions of transactions each year, with innovations in contactless payments, tokenisation, and mobile wallets. The company is currently led by CEO Michael Miebach, who assumed the role in 2021.
Mastercard’s mission is to connect and power an inclusive, digital economy that benefits everyone, everywhere. The company is strongly committed to ESG principles, with clear targets related to carbon neutrality, financial empowerment, and ethical governance. Through continuous innovation and responsible leadership, Mastercard aims to shape the future of global commerce and enhance the resilience of the digital payment ecosystem.
🔴 P/E (Price to Earnings, TTM)
Price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for the most recent quarter is 34.8, compared to 38.0 in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 36.9. This decline in the P/E ratio may indicate a shift in market sentiment, where investors are placing a lower premium on future earnings growth. A falling P/E ratio could be driven by slowing revenue growth, increased risk perception, or improved earnings performance that is outpacing stock price growth.
P/E Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (TTM)
P/E Ratio
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🟢 EPS (Earnings Per Share, TTM)
Mastercard's earnings per share (EPS) for the most recent quarter is 15.83 USD (+5.5%), compared to 15.01 USD in the previous quarter, with a longer-term trend value of 16.47 USD. This quarterly increase in EPS suggests improved profitability and operational efficiency.
EPS
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (TTM, USD)
EPS
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🔴 P/B (Price to Book)
Price-to-book (P/B) ratio for the most recent quarter stands at 62.65 (-4.7%), compared to 65.74 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 68.88. This decline in the P/B ratio may indicate a more conservative market stance on the company’s asset valuation, potentially influenced by shifting investor sentiment, changes in financial fundamentals, or broader economic conditions.
P/B Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
P/B Ratio
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🟢 EBIT
EBIT for Mastercard in the most recent quarter is 5,170 million USD, compared to 4,914 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 5,168 million USD. This increase reflects improved operational performance and higher profitability, aligning with the long-term growth trajectory.
EBIT
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
EBIT
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🟡 Risk Assessment
Below is a factual risk assessment for Mastercard Inc., highlighting key areas of risk that could impact the company’s financial performance and strategic position.
Market Risk
Mastercard operates in a highly competitive global payments industry, facing strong competition from Visa, fintech firms, and alternative payment systems such as cryptocurrencies. Changing consumer preferences and technological disruption may affect demand for traditional card-based services. Economic downturns or regional instability can also reduce transaction volumes and cross-border spending.
Financial Risk
Although Mastercard maintains robust revenue and profit margins, it is exposed to fluctuations in foreign exchange rates due to its extensive international operations. Dependence on consumer spending and business activity makes it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. Additionally, any major cyber incident could lead to financial losses and increased operational costs.
Operational Risk
Mastercard relies on the stability and security of its global payments infrastructure, which is at risk from cyberattacks, system outages, or technical failures. Business continuity may be affected by third-party service providers and data centre vulnerabilities. Effective risk controls and IT resilience are essential to maintaining stakeholder trust.
Regulatory Risk
The company is subject to a complex and evolving regulatory environment involving data privacy laws, anti-money laundering measures, and financial oversight. Regulatory investigations or changes to interchange fee structures could impact revenue and operations. Compliance failures in any jurisdiction may result in reputational harm or financial penalties.
Overall Risk Assessment
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🟡 Piotroski F-Score Analysis
Piotroski F-Score analysis is a robust methodology designed to assess the financial strength and operational efficiency of companies, providing valuable insights for investment decision-making.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
| Previous TTM | Current TTM | Score | |
| Net Income | 12,323 | 14,250 | 1 |
| ROA | 28.23% | 28.32% | 1 |
| Net Operating Cash Flow | 3,993 | -173 | 0 |
| OCF > Net Income | 1,753 | 3,230 | 1 |
| Long-Term Debt | 60,014 | 74,231 | 0 |
| Current Ratio | 1.29 | 1.12 | 0 |
| New Shares Issued (mln) | 925 | 900 | 1 |
| Gross Margin | 75.25% | 77.49% | 1 |
| Total Asset Turnover Ratio | 0.62 | 0.63 | 1 |
| Piotroski F-Score | 6/9 |
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🟢 Altman Z-Score Analysis
Altman Z-Score is a widely recognised financial metric used to evaluate the risk of bankruptcy for companies. It is particularly relevant for assessing the creditworthiness of manufacturing and industrial companies but has also been adapted for other industries.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
| Q3 25 | |||
| Altman Z-Score (TTM) | 17.17 | ||
| 0 | Distress | 1.8 | Grey | 2.99 | Safe | 4 |
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
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🟡 Key Assets Components
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
As of last quarter the company reported total assets of 53,289 million USD, representing an increase of 12.8% compared to the previous year the same quarter 47,237 million USD. The largest contributor to this change in current assets was Receivables, which grew by 5.8% to 4,247 million USD from 4,014 million USD.
Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q3 24 | Q3 25 | Change (%) | |
| Cash & Short-Term Inv | 11,401 | 10,648 | -6.60% |
| Inventory | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Receivables | 4,014 | 4,247 | 5.80% |
| Total Current Assets | 22,300 | 23,113 | 3.65% |
| Property and Equipment | 2,176 | 2,299 | 5.65% |
| Goodwill, Intangibles | 11,956 | 15,165 | 26.84% |
| Other Long-Term Assets | 9,193 | 8,448 | -8.10% |
| Total Assets | 47,237 | 53,289 | 12.81% |
Assets
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🔴 Key Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Total current liabilities increased by 19.7%, indicating a potential growth in operational activities. This change may affect the company's ability to manage its working capital efficiently. Long-term debt increased by 7.8%, suggesting a rise in long-term obligations. This shift could have implications for the Mastercard's financing costs and overall debt strategy.
Liabilities & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q3 24 | Q3 25 | Change (%) | |
| Accounts Payable | 911 | 935 | 2.63% |
| Accrued Expenses, Other | 9,416 | 12,209 | 29.66% |
| Total Current Liabilities | 17,294 | 20,693 | 19.65% |
| Long-term Lease | 0 | 0 | 0.00% |
| Long-term Debt | 17,608 | 18,983 | 7.81% |
| Total Liabilities | 39,762 | 45,370 | 14.10% |
| Shareholders’ Equity | 7,475 | 7,904 | 5.74% |
Liabilities & Equity
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🟢 Income Statement Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
As of Q3 25, Mastercard reported a revenue of 8,602 million USD, marking an increase of 16.7% compared to the previous year to 7,369 million USD. Operating expenses decreased to 1,539 million USD, down by 3.9% year-on-year from 1,602 million USD.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q3 24 | Q3 25 | Change (%) | |
| Revenue | 7,369 | 8,602 | 16.73% |
| Operating Expenses | 1,602 | 1,539 | -3.93% |
| Operating Income | 4,004 | 5,170 | 29.12% |
| Net Income | 3,263 | 3,927 | 20.35% |
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Revenue & Net Income
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🟡 Cash Flow Analysis
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
The company’s cash flow performance over the year demonstrates varied trends across key categories. Net operating cash flows increased by 10.3% from 5,136 million USD to 5,663 million USD, reflecting stronger cash generation from core business activities. Net investing cash flows decreased by 46.1% from -256 million USD to -374 million USD, indicating higher expenditure on investments, potentially related to strategic initiatives.
Operating Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
| Q3 24 | Q3 25 | Change (%) | |
| Net Operating Cash Flows | 5,136 | 5,663 | 10.26% |
| Net Investing Cash Flows | -256 | -374 | -46.09% |
| Net Financing Cash Flows | -857 | -4,000 | -366.74% |
| Net Cash Flow, Equivalents | 4,023 | 1,289 | -67.96% |
Operating Cash Flow
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🟢 EBITDA
Mastercard's EBITDA for the most recent quarter is 5,475 milion USD (+6.4%), compared to 5,148 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 5,297 milion USD. This increase in EBITDA suggests improved operational efficiency and revenue growth, indicating stronger core business performance.
EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
EBITDA
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🟢 Net Income
Net income for the most recent quarter is 3,927 milion USD (+6.1%), compared to 3,701 milion USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 3,822 milion USD. This increase in net income reflects improved profitability, potentially driven by higher revenue growth, enhanced cost efficiency, or favorable market conditions.
Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Income
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🟢 ROE (Return on Equity, %) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Mastercard's return on equity (ROE) for the most recent quarter is 180.3%, compared to 173.0% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 187.0%. This increase in ROE indicates improved profitability and more efficient use of shareholders' equity to generate earnings.
ROE Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
ROE Indicator
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🟢 ROA (Return on Assets, %)
Return on assets (ROA) for the most recent quarter is 26.7%, compared to 26.4% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 26.6%. This increase in ROA indicates improved efficiency in utilizing company assets to generate profits. The higher return suggests stronger operational performance and effective resource allocation.
ROA Indicator
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
ROA Indicator
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🟡 Operating Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Mastercard's operating margin for the most recent quarter is 60.1%, compared to 60.4% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 58.9%. This decline in operating margin may indicate increased production or operational costs, pricing pressures, or lower revenue retention. A reduction in margin suggests that certain cost components are weighing on profitability, potentially requiring adjustments in expense management.
Operating Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
Operating Margin
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🟢 Net Margin (%) ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Net margin for the most recent quarter is 45.7%, compared to 45.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 43.6%. This increase in net margin suggests improved profitability, reflecting stronger cost control, enhanced operational efficiency, or higher revenue retention. The company appears to be effectively managing expenses while maintaining revenue growth, contributing to improved bottom-line performance.
Net Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
Net Margin
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🟡 Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
The current long-term debt is 18,983 million USD, and EBITDA is 5,475 million USD. The long-term debt to EBITDA ratio for the most recent quarter is 346.7%, compared to 368.5% in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 360.5%. This decline in the long-term debt to EBITDA ratio suggests an improvement in the company's ability to manage and service its long-term debt obligations. The lower ratio indicates stronger financial flexibility, potentially driven by higher earnings generation or reduced leverage.
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
Although the ratio has decreased, it is still within the monitoring range 250%–400%, suggesting that debt management should continue to be observed. A declining trend in this ratio is typically a positive sign for investors, as it implies reduced financial risk and an improved capacity to meet long-term liabilities.
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to EBITDA Ratio
Although the ratio has decreased, it is still within the monitoring range 250%–400%, suggesting that debt management should continue to be observed. A declining trend in this ratio is typically a positive sign for investors, as it implies reduced financial risk and an improved capacity to meet long-term liabilities.
Long-Term Debt & EBITDA
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🟢 Long-Term Debt & Assets
The current long-term debt is 18,983 million USD, and total assets are 53,289 million USD, resulting in a debt ratio of 35.6%. This decline in the long-term debt-to-assets ratio indicates an improvement in financial stability, as the company is reducing its reliance on long-term debt relative to its total assets. This suggests either an increase in total assets or a reduction in outstanding long-term liabilities.
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
The current level remains within the safe range <40%, reflecting a strong balance sheet and a conservative debt structure. A declining debt-to-assets ratio is generally seen as a positive signal for investors, as it implies lower financial risk and greater balance sheet resilience.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Assets Ratio
The current level remains within the safe range <40%, reflecting a strong balance sheet and a conservative debt structure. A declining debt-to-assets ratio is generally seen as a positive signal for investors, as it implies lower financial risk and greater balance sheet resilience.
Long-Term Debt & Assets
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🔴 Long-Term Debt & Equity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The current long-term debt is 18,983 million USD, while Total Equity stands at 7,904 million USD, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 240.2%. This decline in the long-term debt-to-equity ratio suggests improved financial strength, as the company is reducing its reliance on debt financing relative to its equity base. This may be the result of increased retained earnings, debt repayments, or higher equity financing, all of which contribute to a healthier balance sheet.
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
Although the ratio has decreased, it is still within the healthy range 50%–150%, suggesting that debt levels remain manageable and in line with industry standards. A declining debt-to-equity ratio is generally a positive signal for investors, reflecting reduced leverage and improved financial flexibility.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Long-Term Debt to Equity Ratio
Although the ratio has decreased, it is still within the healthy range 50%–150%, suggesting that debt levels remain manageable and in line with industry standards. A declining debt-to-equity ratio is generally a positive signal for investors, reflecting reduced leverage and improved financial flexibility.
Long-Term Debt & Equity
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🔴 Equity to Assets
The current equity is 7,904 million USD, while total assets stand at 53,289 million USD, resulting in an equity-to-assets ratio of 14.8%. This decline in the equity-to-assets ratio may signal increased financial leverage or a reduction in equity levels. A falling ratio suggests that Mastercard may be increasing its reliance on debt financing or facing equity dilution, which could affect long-term financial resilience.
Equity to Assets Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (%)
The ratio has now dropped below the 30% threshold, signaling potential financial vulnerability. A lower equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk in uncertain market conditions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future capital allocation strategies to determine whether this decrease is a short-term fluctuation or a longer-term structural change.
Equity & Assets
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Equity to Assets Ratio
The ratio has now dropped below the 30% threshold, signaling potential financial vulnerability. A lower equity ratio suggests a higher reliance on debt financing, which may increase financial risk in uncertain market conditions. Investors and analysts will closely monitor future capital allocation strategies to determine whether this decrease is a short-term fluctuation or a longer-term structural change.
Equity & Assets
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🟢 Quick Ratio
The quick ratio for Mastercard is 1.12, compared to 1.16 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1.03. This decline in the quick ratio may indicate lower liquidity, reduced cash reserves, or an increase in short-term liabilities. Although the ratio has declined, it remains above 1.0, which still reflects strong liquidity; however, the downward trend should be monitored.
Quick Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
Quick Ratio
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🟢 Current Ratio
The current ratio for Mastercard is 1.12, compared to 1.16 in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1.03. This decline in the current ratio may indicate a higher reliance on short-term liabilities, reduced cash flow, or increased working capital constraints. Despite the decrease, the ratio remains within the 1.0–2.0 range, which is still considered healthy, though further monitoring of working capital efficiency is advisable.
Current Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
Current Ratio
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🟡 Net Working Capital
The net working capital (NWC) for Mastercard in the most recent quarter is 2,420 million USD, compared to 3,111 million USD in the previous quarter, with a long-term trend value of 1,763 million USD.
Net Working Capital
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Net Working Capital
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🟡 Inventory Turnover Ratio
The inventory turnover ratio for Mastercard is not available, as the company does not report inventory in its financial statements. This may indicate that Mastercard operates in a service-based or software-driven industry, where inventory is not a significant component of operations.
Inventory Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
Inventory Turnover Ratio
🔴 Asset Turnover Ratio
The assets turnover ratio for Mastercard in the most recent quarter is 0.59, compared to 0.59 in the previous quarter. This increase in the assets turnover ratio indicates that Mastercard is utilizing its assets more efficiently to generate revenue. A rising ratio often reflects improved sales performance, better assets utilization, or operational efficiency. The ratio has fallen below the 1.0, suggesting that Mastercard may have a high level of assets relative to revenue generation. This could indicate underutilized resources or the need for improved asset efficiency.
Assets Turnover Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
Assets Turnover Ratio
🔴 Book Value / Share
The book value per share (BVPS) is a key valuation metric that represents the equity value per outstanding share. Calculated by dividing total book value by the number of shares, it helps assess whether a stock trades above or below its book value.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (USD)
Book Value per Share Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (USD, generated on 6 December 2025)
| Q3 24 | Q3 25 | Change (%) | |
| Book Value / Share | 8.08 | 8.78 | 8.66 % |
Book Value per Share Valuation
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🟡 Graham Method
The intrinsic value of Mastercard’s stock is calculated using Benjamin Graham’s formula, which takes into account the current earnings per share (EPS) and an assumed growth rate (g), providing a simplified yet insightful perspective on a company’s value.
Benjamin Graham Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (USD, generated on 6 December 2025)
Benjamin Graham Valuation
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🔴 Discounted Cash Flow ★ Buffett's Key Metric
The discounted cash flow (DCF) method is used to estimate Mastercard’s intrinsic value by projecting future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This approach considers the company’s potential to generate cash flows in the future, taking into account the time value of money and associated risks.
The terminal value represents the value of Mastercard’s cash flows beyond the five-year forecast horizon. It is calculated using the Gordon Growth Model, assuming a perpetual growth rate of 2.0% and WACC of 8.6%. The calculated terminal value is 461,532 million USD.
Total Intrinsic Value Calculations
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Assuming 900 million shares outstanding, the intrinsic value per share is approximately 435.96 USD. The current market price of Mastercard’s stock is 545.52 USD. Discounted cash flow valuation indicates that the stock is 25.1% overvalued, trading above its intrinsic value.
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (USD, generated on 6 December 2025)
| Value | |
| Present Value of FCFs | 86,414 |
| Present Value of Terminal Value | 305,952 |
| Total Intrinsic Value | 392,366 |
Discounted Cash Flow Valuation
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🟢 Assets Correlation
The Pearson correlation analysis for Mastercard examines the relationship between share price and key financial indicators. Gross profit has a correlation of 0.93, which indicates a strong relationship, meaning profitability is a key driver of stock price movements. Operating income is correlated at 0.95, highlighting a strong relationship between operating profitability and market valuation.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports
Current liabilities are correlated at 0.98, implying that short-term obligations are closely monitored by investors, influencing stock valuation. Total assets have a correlation of 0.99, confirming a strong relationship between asset growth and market performance.
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports, Index=100 on Q1 11
| Pearson Correlation | |
| Share Price | 1 |
| Gross Profit | 0.93 |
| Operating Income | 0.95 |
| Current Liabilities | 0.98 |
| Total Assets | 0.99 |
Key Financial Indicators Growth Dynamics
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🟡 FCF Margin Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: 67%, driven by operational efficiencies and cost optimisation.
• Base Case: 52% of revenue, consistent with historical trends.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 36%, reflecting higher operating and labour costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
An approximately 15-percentage-point increase in the FCF margin to 67%, results in an additional 4,783 milion USD in FCF, highlighting the critical role of operational efficiency. Conversely, a decrease to 36% reduces FCF by 4,974 milion USD, illustrating the significant impact of profitability on cash flow generation.
Projected FCF Margin Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: 52% of revenue, consistent with historical trends.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 36%, reflecting higher operating and labour costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| FCF Margin (%) | Revenue TTM | FCF TTM | Difference | |
| Optimistic | 67% | 31,474 | 21,088 | 4,783 |
| Base Case | 52% | 31,474 | 16,305 | – |
| Pessimistic | 36% | 31,474 | 11,331 | -4,974 |
Projected FCF Margin Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Operating Costs Scenarios
• Optimistic Scenario: 18%, reflecting enhanced efficiency and lower costs.
• Base Case: 18% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 19%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Reducing operational costs to 18% of revenue leads to a 104 milion USD increase in operating profit, emphasising the significance of cost control in enhancing margins. Increasing costs to 19% of revenue results in a 211 milion USD decline in operating profit, highlighting the sensitivity of profitability to rising expenses.
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
• Base Case: 18% of revenue, aligned with historical trends and cost structures.
• Pessimistic Scenario: 19%, driven by rising wages and increased energy costs. Impact of Changes in FCF Margin
| Operating Costs (%) | Revenue TTM | Operating Profit | Difference | |
| Optimistic | 18% | 31,474 | 25,809 | 104 |
| Base Case | 18% | 31,474 | 25,705 | – |
| Pessimistic | 19% | 31,474 | 25,494 | -211 |
Projected Operating Costs Scenarios Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
🟡 Revenue Growth Scenarios
Optimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 18% annually, driven by:
• Robust macroeconomic conditions.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 15% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 12% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD, TTM)
The projected revenue for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, revenue is expected to increase by 18% to 37,169 million USD, reflecting strong market growth and operational efficiency. In the base case scenario, revenue is forecasted to grow by 15% to 36,220 million USD, assuming stable economic conditions and consistent business expansion. However, under the pessimistic scenario, revenue is projected to increase by 12% to 35,271 million USD, reflecting potential economic slowdowns or adverse market conditions.
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the Mastercard's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
• Strong industry growth with minimal disruptions.
• Favorable regulatory and competitive environment. Base Case: Projected to grow by 15% annually, driven by: • Stable macroeconomic conditions.
• Balanced market growth with manageable risks.
• Limited external disruptions from regulation or supply chains. Pessimistic Scenario: Projected to grow by 12% annually, driven by: • Global economic uncertainty and potential downturn.
• Increased competition and rising operational costs.
• Regulatory and supply chain challenges impacting business operations.
| Revenue | Net Income | Revenue (Next) | Net Income (Next) | |
| Optimistic | 31,474 | 14,250 | 37,169 | 16,828 |
| Base Case | 31,474 | 14,250 | 36,220 | 16,399 |
| Pessimistic | 31,474 | 14,250 | 35,271 | 15,969 |
Projected Revenues Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
The variation between projected scenarios highlights the Mastercard's ability to perform across a range of market conditions. The growth even in the pessimistic case reflects a degree of resilience and suggests a strong underlying business model. This outlook supports confidence in management’s ability to navigate uncertainty while sustaining forward momentum. Scenario analysis enhances strategic visibility, helping stakeholders understand the potential bandwidth of future results.
🟡 Net Income Growth Scenarios
The projected net income for the next twelve months varies depending on the scenario. Under the optimistic scenario, net income is expected to increase by 18% to 16,828 million USD, reflecting improved profitability and strong financial performance. In the base case scenario, net income is forecasted to grow by 15% to 16,399 million USD, assuming stable market conditions and effective cost management. However, under the pessimistic scenario, net income is projected to increase by 12% to 15,969 million USD, reflecting potential challenges such as higher operational costs or slowing revenue growth.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
The projected resilience in net income across all scenarios suggests a stable underlying profitability profile. Even under adverse assumptions, the Mastercard is expected to maintain earnings growth, indicating effective cost controls and strong core operations. This consistency can help support valuation multiples and reduce perceived investment risk. Scenario modeling enhances transparency and strengthens the credibility of financial forecasting in the eyes of stakeholders.
Projected Net Income Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
The projected resilience in net income across all scenarios suggests a stable underlying profitability profile. Even under adverse assumptions, the Mastercard is expected to maintain earnings growth, indicating effective cost controls and strong core operations. This consistency can help support valuation multiples and reduce perceived investment risk. Scenario modeling enhances transparency and strengthens the credibility of financial forecasting in the eyes of stakeholders.
🟢 Financial Performance Overview
Mastercard demonstrated stronger financial performance in the most recent period, reflecting strong revenue growth, operational efficiency, and profitability improvements revenue increased by 16.7% year-over-year, reaching 8,602 million USD, supported by strong sales performance across all key markets. At the same time, EBITDA grew by 15.7% year-over-year, totaling 5,475 million USD, driven by cost optimization and higher-margin business segments.
Revenue & Net Income
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Notably, net income surged by 20.3% year-over-year, reaching 3,927 million USD, improving Mastercard's net margin, which expanded to 45.7%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Revenue & Net Income
Notably, net income surged by 20.3% year-over-year, reaching 3,927 million USD, improving Mastercard's net margin, which expanded to 45.7%. This growth reflects effective expense control and revenue expansion, strengthening the company’s bottom-line performance.
Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (YoY)
Valuation & Market Position
Mastercard’s valuation metrics indicate a strengthened financial standing. The EV to EBITDA (TTM) ratio currently stands at 27.29, decreasing from 29.48, reflecting a dual shift – rising operational performance and declining market valuation. This suggests a high enterprise valuation relative to earnings.
EV to EBITDA Ratio
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (TTM)
The EV to EBITDA trendline illustrates Mastercard’s valuation trajectory, with a declining enterprise value despite improving earnings, possibly signaling undervaluation or market pessimism.
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (TTM)
Meanwhile, the P/E (Price to Earnings) ratio has declined to 34.8, down from 37.3 a year ago, potentially signaling a more balanced market outlook on Mastercard’s earnings potential. The P/S (Price to Sales) ratio has declined to 15.73, compared to 17.03 a year ago, suggesting a more conservative valuation stance among investors.
| Change (%) | |
| Revenue Growth | 16.7% |
| EBITDA Growth | 15.7% |
| Net Income Growth | 20.3% |
| Net Margin | 45.7% |
| EPS | 18.8% |
EV to EBITDA Ratio
The EV to EBITDA trendline illustrates Mastercard’s valuation trajectory, with a declining enterprise value despite improving earnings, possibly signaling undervaluation or market pessimism.
| Ratio (TTM) | |
| EV/EBITDA | 27.29 |
| P/E Ratio | 34.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 15.73 |
Cash Flow & Liquidity ★ Buffett's Key Metric
Mastercard maintains a strengthened cash flow position, highlighting improved liquidity and prudent financial management. The increase in cash flow suggests enhanced operational efficiency and a stronger ability to meet financial obligations.
• Free Cash Flow (FCF) – totaled 5,304 million USD, marking an improvement in liquidity.
• Net Operating Cash Flow – declined by 104.3% year-over-year, reaching -173 million USD, suggesting weaker cash inflows from operating activities.
• Long-term debt – increased by 23.7%, which may lead to higher financial leverage and increased interest obligations.
Mastercard’s ability to generate declining cash flow while increasing debt reinforces its financial flexibility, though ongoing financial management is essential to sustain long-term growth and strategic investments.
Free Cash Flow
Source: MarketVectors.Pro, Mastercard Financial Reports (million USD)
Mastercard's financial performance in the most recent quarter shows that EBITDA reached 5,475 million USD, reflecting improved operational efficiency and earnings growth. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 180.3%, suggesting enhanced capital utilization and stronger profitability. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 240.2%, indicating a more resilient balance sheet and lower financial risk. The quick ratio is 1.12, highlighting tightened liquidity conditions and the need for cautious cash management. The EV/EBITDA ratio is currently 27.29x, reflecting a balanced or attractive valuation level relative to earnings. Overall, Mastercard’s financial health remains strong, with consistent revenue expansion, cost efficiency improvements, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is declining, while Mastercard’s long-term prospects remain positive.
Free Cash Flow
Mastercard's financial performance in the most recent quarter shows that EBITDA reached 5,475 million USD, reflecting improved operational efficiency and earnings growth. The company's return on equity (ROE) is 180.3%, suggesting enhanced capital utilization and stronger profitability. The long-term debt-to-equity ratio stands at 240.2%, indicating a more resilient balance sheet and lower financial risk. The quick ratio is 1.12, highlighting tightened liquidity conditions and the need for cautious cash management. The EV/EBITDA ratio is currently 27.29x, reflecting a balanced or attractive valuation level relative to earnings. Overall, Mastercard’s financial health remains strong, with consistent revenue expansion, cost efficiency improvements, and strong liquidity. Meanwhile, the P/E ratio is declining, while Mastercard’s long-term prospects remain positive.
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